Unmasking the Curse of out-of-School Primary-Age Children in Burkina Faso: an Empirical Investigation
Abstract
We empirically unmask a persistent challenge of out-of-school primary-age children in Burkina Faso. Utilising time-series data from the World Bank spanning 1971 to 2023, we apply the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling technique to analyse trends in the percentage of primary-age children not enrolled in school. The Dependent Variable is Children out of school (% of primary school age), while moving average (MA) and autoregressive (AR) components function as independent variables. Parameter estimation using Conditional Least Squares reveals a statistically significant MA (6) coefficient of -0.817231, suggesting that approximately 82% of the shock in current out-of-school rates is explained by past errors. AR (1) coefficient of -0.565318 indicates that about 57% of the variation is influenced by its immediate past value. We find a strong trend of educational exclusion and thus recommend that policymakers design timely and data-driven interventions aimed at achieving universal primary education and meeting Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4) targets in Burkina Faso
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