Understanding Ethiopia’s Maritime Deal with Somaliland Through Abiy Ahmed’s Foreign Policy

Abstract

This paper examines Ethiopia’s maritime deal with the de facto state of Somaliland in line with Abiy Ahmed’s foreign policy. A qualitative approach was employed, and secondary data sources obtained from the literature, such as books, journal articles, government and international organisation reports, newsletters, and other credible internet sources, were analysed through qualitative data analysis techniques. The study's findings can be summarised as follows: The study postulates that Ethiopia’s port deal with Somaliland raises regional tension in the Horn of Africa, a region often known for conflict and persistent instability. The deal also draws the contending interest of external forces. Turkey becomes the guardian of Somalia’s coastline, the UAE supports Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland, and Egypt provides direct military support to Somalia for the first time in four decades. This development contributes to the escalation of diplomatic strife between Ethiopia and Somalia and regional tensions. The study also examines Ethiopia’s post-2018 foreign policy since Abiy Ahmed took office. It underlines that Ethiopia remains without a clear foreign policy despite Abiy Ahmed’s attempt in his early tenure to revise the 2002 Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy. The study asserts that the country’s foreign policy is significantly influenced by Abiy Ahmed’s highly personalised diplomacy and foreign relations that often bypass institutional approaches. In an assertion, the Ethiopian government was working to use multiple ports, including in Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia, through port diversification policy. However, all the previous port diversification attempts were abandoned without a clear justification. In exchange, Abiy Ahmed signed a direct sea access maritime deal with Somaliland to recognise Somalia’s breakaway region. This development resulted in a suspicious attitude among Ethiopia’s neighbours, notably Eritrea and Somalia, who initiated a new tripartite bloc with Egypt. This has the potential to isolate Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa diplomatically