Fiscal Programmatic Strategies and Sustainability of Education Projects in Emergency Settings: Evidence from Kakuma and Dadaab Refugee Camps, Kenya

الملخص

Access to quality education is a fundamental element of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 4), particularly for refugees enduring prolonged displacement, such as those residing in the Dadaab and Kakuma Refugee Camps in Kenya. While education projects are critical in advancing inclusive and equitable learning opportunities in emergency contexts, many such programs encounter persistent challenges, often stemming from fiscal and programmatic constraints. However, a review of the literature reveals limited empirical research on how fiscal and programmatic strategies affect the long-term sustainability of these education initiatives. The study addresses these knowledge gaps by focusing on the sustainability of non-profit-led education projects in Kenyan refugee camps, thereby contributing to the evidence base necessary for achieving SDG 4 in refugee settings. The objectives of this study were to examine the influence of fiscal monitoring, social financing, financial adequacy, and funding diversification on the sustainability of education projects in refugee camps in Kenya. The study employed a descriptive research design, collecting data through questionnaires and key informant interviews with a diverse group of education stakeholders, including 13 school principals, 42 head teachers, 78 boards of management (BOM) members, 35 education officers, 25 program managers, and 5 education directors. Correlation and regression analyses were conducted to assess the relationships and predictive power of each fiscal programmatic strategy. Correlation analysis revealed that fiscal monitoring (r = .978, p < .001), social financing (r = .935, p < .001), financial adequacy (r = .978, p < .001), and funding diversification (r = .799, p < .001) each showed strong positive associations with project sustainability. However, regression analysis demonstrated that only fiscal monitoring (β = 0.377, p = 0.000), social financing (β = 0.240, p = 0.000), and financial adequacy (β = 0.265, p = 0.044) remained statistically significant independent predictors when accounting for all variables, while funding diversification was not significant (β = 0.039, p = 0.728). Consequently, the study concludes that fiscal monitoring, social financing, and financial adequacy are key determinants of sustainable education projects in refugee contexts. This study recommends the implementation of comprehensive fiscal programmatic strategies, with a particular focus on robust fiscal monitoring by auditors, ensuring financial adequacy, and the integration of social finance programs such as school meals and cash transfers. To enhance funding diversification, the formation of multi-functional teams to conduct participatory assessments, aligning community needs with donor motivations, is also advised. These recommendations aim to strengthen project success and support the long-term sustainability of education initiatives in refugee settings.