Exploring the Nexus Between Prosopis Juliflora Invasion, Deforestation, and Cultivated Land in Lake Bogoria Watershed, Baringo, Kenya
Abstract
The effects of invasive plant species on dryland ecosystems and deforestation are global concerns. In Kenya, this is particularly of concern given that 90 % of the country’s land mass is considered arid and semi-arid lands and is depended upon by poor local communities for their livelihoods. Invasive species lead to declining land productivity and consequential food insecurity and loss of biodiversity. This study was conducted to assess the relationship between Prosopis Juliflora invasion, deforestation, and land under cultivation in the semi-arid Lake Bogoria Watershed within Baringo County in Kenya. The study was conducted between December 2022 and December 2023. Time series analysis of Landsat satellite images was undertaken, involving image processing, classification and analysis using ArcGIS version 10.5. Questionnaire administration was also employed, and a focus group discussion was held. Land Use Land Cover analysis, over the period 1981-2020, displayed an increase in the surface area covered by Prosopis Juliflora by 0.74 km2 (from 0 km2 in 1981); a decrease in forested area by 25.83 km2 (from 101.42 km2), signifying deforestation by the same magnitude; and an increase in cultivated land by 7.89 km2 (from 19.91 km2). Generally, there was a strong and significant positive relationship between the three variables (R2 = 98.7%; p < 0.013), whereby cultivated land increased as both deforestation and area under Prosopis juliflora increased. The relationship between deforestation and cultivated land was significant (p < 0.026), but that between Prosopis juliflora invasion and cultivated land was not statistically significant (p = 0.889). The insignificance in the latter is explained by the negligible coverage of Prosopis juliflora in the study area (0.19% area). In conclusion, more Prosopis juliflora should be exploited to curb its spread and sustainable agriculture practised to enhance food security and reduce deforestation simultaneously.
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