Spatial and Temporal Dynamics in Vegetation Cover and Its Impact on Carbon Stock in Kicukiro District, Rwanda
Abstract
Climate change and land use changes are significantly affecting vegetation cover and carbon storage, especially in Rwanda. This study examines how vegetation cover has changed over time and how these changes have impacted carbon stocks in Kicukiro District from 2000 to 2022. Using a combination of remote sensing, GIS, and field data, the research tracks vegetation shifts, estimates changes in carbon stocks, and explores their relationship. The results show a sharp decline in dense vegetation from 41% to 18% while sparse and moderate vegetation increased (from 5% to 12% and 6% to 17%, respectively). This led to major losses in carbon stock: 897.98 tons between 2000–2010 and 1,558.04 tons between 2010–2022. Vegetation cover also declined by 6.42 km² in the first decade and 15.45 km² in the second. Statistical analysis shows a strong negative correlation (r = -0.9) between vegetation cover loss and carbon stock decline, highlighting the key role of forests in climate regulation. These findings point to fast ecosystem degradation in Kicukiro and its effect on Rwanda’s ability to store carbon. The study calls for urgent action to protect and restore forests, offering practical guidance for policymakers. By connecting vegetation change with carbon dynamics at the local level, the research supports informed land-use planning and climate adaptation, with lessons for similar areas in East Africa
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