Assessment of the Effects of Anthropogenic Activities on Cover Change of Sayaka Forest Reserve in Tanzania
Abstract
Understanding the impacts of anthropogenic activities on forest ecosystems is critical for sustainable management and conservation. This study assessed land cover change and its anthropogenic disturbance drivers in the Sayaka Forest Reserve between 1995 and 2023. Multi-temporal Landsat and Sentinel imagery were classified into closed woodland, open woodland, agriculture, and water bodies using Random Forest algorithms, supported by ground truth data and accuracy assessment. Disturbance data were collected from 80 concentric plots stratified by disturbance intensity and analysed using correlation and generalised linear models. Results revealed substantial fluctuations in land cover: closed woodland declined sharply from 85.3% in 1995 to 24.8% in 2018, before recovering to 58.5% in 2023. Agriculture expanded between 2010 and 2018 (up to 16.6%) but dropped to 0.5% in 2023, while water bodies and open woodland exhibited marked temporal variability. Generalized linear model indicated that tree cutting (β = 1.13, p < 0.001), grazing (β = 1.04, p < 0.05), agriculture (β = 0.79, p < 0.05), and erosion (β = 0.89, p = 0.053) were the most significant drivers of closed woodland loss, explaining 62.1% of the variation (R² = 0.621). Correlation analysis confirmed tree cutting as the strongest predictor of degradation, whereas erosion and grazing showed a strong negative association, suggesting distinct spatial patterns. Overall, findings demonstrate that Sayaka Forest Reserve has experienced dynamic and complex land cover transitions driven primarily by logging, agriculture, and grazing pressures. These results highlight the urgent need for integrated and participatory management strategies to curb degradation and ensure long-term ecological resilience of the reserve
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Copyright (c) 2025 Leonard Aloice Pascal, Thadei Tarcis Rugambwa, Kelvin James Lyatuu, Paulo John Lyimo, Beatus Mwendwa
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