Combined Effects of Climate Variability, Socioeconomic Factors, and Indigenous Agroforestry on Agricultural Productivity and Livelihood Resilience in Wayu Tuka and Guto Gida Woredas, Ethiopia

Résumé

This study explores the combined impacts of climate variability, socioeconomic factors, and indigenous agroforestry practices on agricultural productivity and livelihood resilience among 400 smallholder farmers in Wayu Tuka and Guto Gida Woredas, Oromia, Ethiopia. Climate variability, marked by a 10–20% decline in rainfall and a 1.85°C temperature increase over the period from 1955 to 2023, poses significant challenges to rain-fed agricultural systems, leading to reduced crop yields, degraded soil fertility, and diminished water retention capacity. These changes threaten the livelihoods of smallholder farmers who depend on crops such as maize, teff, and sorghum, as well as livestock rearing, for their sustenance and income. The research integrates quantitative and qualitative methods, utilising household surveys, climate data spanning 1998 to 2022, and key informant interviews to assess how these factors interact. Analytical tools, including multiple linear regression, random forest regression, and ANCOVA, were applied using R software with packages such as stats, randomForest, ggplot2, and corrplot to model relationships between variables. Findings reveal that socioeconomic factors, particularly education and larger family sizes, significantly enhance farmers’ adaptive capacity, enabling better adoption of resilience strategies. However, gender disparities limit women’s engagement in agroforestry, with male farmers showing higher adoption rates due to greater access to land and resources. Indigenous agroforestry systems, incorporating tree species like Eucalyptus globulus, Faidherbia albida, and Acacia decurrens, contribute substantially to household income, accounting for 34.35% through timber, fodder, and ecosystem services such as soil fertility enhancement and water retention. Agroforestry ranks as the third most effective adaptation strategy, following new crop varieties and livestock diversification, as evidenced by correlation matrices and income diversification charts. These systems stabilise agricultural productivity during climate shocks, particularly droughts, which affect 78.8% of farmers. The study emphasises the need for gender-inclusive policies to address disparities in agroforestry adoption, alongside increased investment in education to bolster adaptive capacity. Recommendations include scaling up agroforestry extension services, particularly for nitrogen-fixing species, and aligning interventions with Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy strategy to promote sustainable livelihoods. By integrating climate-smart agroforestry with socioeconomic empowerment, this research highlights pathways to enhance resilience in climate-vulnerable rural communities, contributing to sustainable development goals related to food security, climate action, and ecosystem restoration.