People’s Perception of Climate change, climate variability, and Coping Strategies in South Sudan: The Case of Sudd Wetland

Andu Zakaria Lukwasa; Kassahun Ture; Tadesse Terefe Zekeke; Fikru Abiko Anose Ture

doi:10.37284/ajccrs.4.2.3328

Andu Zakaria Lukwasa Addis Ababa University
Kassahun Ture Addis Ababa University
Tadesse Terefe Zekeke Alliance Bioversity and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture
Fikru Abiko Anose Ture Wolkite University

##plugins.pubIds.doi.readerDisplayName##: https://doi.org/10.37284/ajccrs.4.2.3328

##share.article##:

Résumé

In this study, coping mechanisms and instrumental records were used to examine people's perceptions of climate change and variability. Data from 387 individuals were gathered by questionnaire. Furthermore, six focus group discussions were organised. Gridded data on temperature and precipitation were gathered from four stations between 1979 and 2014. The metrological parameters, including temperature and Sun heat periods, were measured and compared with the perception of the residents during the settlement in the 1920s. The perception result showed that both the minimum and the maximum temperatures were changing and rising. .99.5% of respondents reported an increase in solar heat and variability in the onset and cessation of rains, while 51% of respondents said the climate was unpleasant. As a result, we accept the alternative hypothesis, H0 = 0, which states that the residents of the research area were aware of climate variability and change, and reject the null hypothesis, H0 = 0. The Standard Precipitation Index showed that there were more dry spells than wet ones. The results of the Chi-square test showed a strong correlation between coping mechanisms and perceptions of variability and climate change. According to the study's findings, humans have primary and supplementary coping mechanisms for dealing with climate fluctuation and change. In addition to planned adaptation based on current local coping techniques, the study advises policymakers and development partners to establish climate-smart Agriculture solutions that are suitable at the Payam level.

##plugins.generic.usageStats.downloads##

##plugins.generic.usageStats.noStats##

Références

Asrat, P., & Simane, B. (2018). Farmers ’ perception of climate change and adaptation strategies in the Dabus watershed, North-West Ethiopia. Ecological Processes 7:7 https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-018-0118-

Ayanlade, A., Radeny, M., & Morton, J. F. (2017). Comparing smallholder farmers ’ perception of climate change with meteorological data : A case study from southwestern Nigeria. Weather and Climate Extremes, 15(September 2016), 24–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2016.12.001

Bodegom, A J Van., Brouwer, U., & Satijn, B., La Pluie, M &Buit, G. l. (2015). Climate Change Profile. Retrieved from climatehelpdesk@minbuza.nl

Boru, H. J., & Koske, J. K. A. (2014). Climate Variability and Response Strategies among the Gadamoji Agro-Pastoralists of Marsabit County, Kenya Halkano J. Boru, 4(11), 69–78.

Campbell and Fiske. (1959). Triangulation. In K. Cohen, Louis, Manion, Lawrence, & Morrison (Ed.), Research Methods in Education (pp. 141–142). New York: Routledge.

Chandra, N., & Mishra, D. (2013). Analysis of Perception and Adaptability Strategies of the Farmers to Climate Change in Odisha, India, 5, 123– 127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apcbee.2013.05.022

Chen, H., Guo, J., Zhang, Z., Xu, C.V. (2013) Prediction and precipitation in Sudan and South Sudan using LARS-WG in future.Theor.Appl.Climatol.113(3-4)363-375.http:/doi.org/10.100704/s00704012-0793-9.

Cohen. L, Manion. L, M.. (2007). Research Methods in. In K. L.Cohen, Loius, Manion, Lawrence & Morrison (Ed.), Research Methods in Education (pp. 101–115). London and New York: Routledge.

Cuni-Sanchez A, Omeny P, Pfeifer M, Olaka L, Boru M, Marchant R, B. N. (2019). Climate change and pastoralists : perceptions and adaptation in montane Kenya. Climate and Developement, 22.

Deliens, T., Clarys, P., Bourdeaudhuij, I. De, & Deforche, B. (2014). Determinants of eating behaviour in university students : a qualitative study using focus group discussions, 1–12.

Deressa, T.T., Hassan, R.M and Ringer, C. (2011). Perception of and adaptation to climate change by farmers in the Nile basin of Ethiopia. Journal of Agricultural Science, 149, 23–31. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859610000687

El agib, N.A and El haj, M. . (2011). Major Climate Indicators of on going droughts in Sudan. Journal of Hydrology, 409, 612–625. Retrieved from 10.1016/j:hyrol.2011.08.047

Elum, Z. A., Modise, D. M., & Marr, A. (2017). Climate Risk Management Farmer’s perception of climate change and responsive strategies in three selected provinces of South Africa. Climate Risk Management, 16, 246–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.11.001

Eriksen, S. H., Brown, K., & Kelly, P. M. (2005). The dynamics of vulnerability: locating coping strategies in Kenya and Tanzania, 171(4), 287–305.

FEWSNET. (2011). A Climate Trend Analysis of Sudan. Raston:V.A. https://doi.org/doi:10.3133/fs20113072

FEWSNET. (2013a). South Sudan Livelihood Zones and Descriptions. Retrieved from www.fews.net

FEWSNET. (2013b). SOUTH SUDAN Livelihood Zones and Descriptions August 2013, (August), 14pp.

Gandure, S., Walker, S., Botha, J.J. (2015) Farmers' perceptions of adaptation to climate change and water stress in South Africa Rural community.Environ.Develop(5) 39-53.

IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007:Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability. (P. J. van der L. and C. E. H. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, Ed.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Israel, G. D. (1992). Determining Sample Size 1, (November), 1–5.

John, S., Tomor, B.M., Lado, M.M., Balli, J.J., Berg, T., Galla.J.O., Ngalamu.T., Salata, H.H., Moilinga, M.K., Athiba, A.L., Henry, B., & Oonya, J. (2013). Proceedings of the project planning workshop on South Sudan’s Sudd Region. In J. O. Galla (Ed.), A Workshop organized by University of Juba in collaboration with the Norwegian University of Life Sciences and Makerere University with Support from NORAD (pp. 1–109). Juba.

Lukwasa, A.Z., Zeleke, T.T., Beketie, K.T., Ayal, D.Y. (2022) Spatio-temporal rainfall variability and its linkage with large scale climate oscillatios over the Republic of South Sudan.Climate service(28)http://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100322.

Meze-hausken, E. (2018). Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia, 27(1), 19–31.

Moretti, F., Vliet, L. Van, Bensing, J., Deledda, G., Mazzi, M., Rimondini, M., … Fletcher, I. (2011). Patient Education and Counseling A standardized approach to qualitative content analysis of focus group discussions from different countries. Patient Education and Counseling, 82(3), 420–428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pec.2011.01.005

Niles, M. T., & Mueller, N. D. (2016). Farmer perceptions of climate change : Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs. Global Environmental Change, 39, 133–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.002

Null, J. (2017). El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities Based on Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). Retrieved from http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Nyang'au, J.O., Mohamed, J.H., Mango, N., Makate, C, Wangeci. A, N. (2021) Smallholder farmers' perception of climate change and adoption of smart agriculture practices in Masaba South Sub-county, Kisii, Kenya. Heliyon (7). doi.org/10.1016/jheliyon.2021.e06789

Ogalleh, S. A., Vogl, C. R., Eitzinger, J., & Hauser, M. (2012). Local Perceptions and Responses to Climate Change and Variability: The Case of Laikipia District, Kenya, 3302–3325. https://doi.org/10.3390/su4123302

Omoj,P.,Laban,A.O.,Oludhe,C.,Gitau,W(2016).Temporal and Spatial characteristics of the June-August seasonal rainfall and temperature over South Sudan.J.Meteorol Related Science.Vol. 9. http://doi.org/10.2098/jmrs.5.08.2016.

Ott, R. & Longnecker, M. (2010). An Introduction to Statistical Methods and Data Analysis. (M. Taylor, Ed.). Macmillan.

Petersen, G., Fohrer, N., & Zhang, Z. (2010). Flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal Sudd flood plains along the Bahr el Jebel in southern Sudan, 55(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660903525278

Poudel, S., Funakawa, S and Shinjo, H. (2017).Household perception about the impacts of climate change food security in the mountainous Region of Nepal. Sustainability(9)doi:10.3390/su9040641.

Quinn, C., Fox, A., & Baroang, K., Evans, D., Gomes. M., & Habib, J. (2019). SOUTH SUDAN CLIMATE VULNERABILITY Profile : Sector- And Location-Specific Climate Risks And Resilience Recommendations.

Rebelo, L. M., Senay, G. B., & McCartney, M. P. (2012). Flood pulsing in the Sudd wetland: Analysis of seasonal variations in inundation and evaporation in South Sudan. Earth Interactions, 16(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011EI382.1

Savenije, H & Mohamed, Y. (2014). Impact of climate variability on the hydrology of the Sudd wetland : signals derived from long term (1900 – 2000) water balance computations, 191–198. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-014-9337-7

Sawe, J., Mung, C. G., & Kimaro, G. F. (2018). The impacts of climate change and variability on crop farming systems in Semi-Arid Central Tanzania : The case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, 12(September), 323334. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJEST2018.2481

Shrestha, R. P., Chaweewan, N., & Arunyawat, S. (2017). Adaptation to Climate Change by Rural Ethnic. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030057

Soliman, G. & Soussa, H. (2011). Wetland change detection in Nile swamps of southern Sudan using multitemporal satellite Sudan using multitemporal satellite imagery. Journal-of-Applied-Remote-Sensing, 5, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1117/1.3571009

SSCCSE. (2010). Southern Sudan Counts : Tables from the 5th Sudan Population and Housing Census,2008. Juba. Retrieved from www.ssccse.org

Teshome, M. (2017). Perceived Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yield Trend in Denbia Woreda of Amhara Region, Northwest Ethiopia, 2(7). https://doi.org/10.15406/mojes.2017.02.00047

Turhan, N.S. (2015). Kar Pearson's Chi square testsEduc.Res.Rev.Vol15(9)pp575-580.Doi:/10.58971/ERR2019.3817.

UNEP. (2018). South Sudan: First State of Environment and Outlook Report 2018. (M. Singh, A., Gilrurth, P., Lund, H., Barr, J.R., Kironde, E., Rugege, D., Ochieng, E.A., Feng, M., Liu, X & Moilinga, Ed.) (Ist). Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme.

Weber, E. U. (2010). What shapes perceptions of climate change ?, 1(June), 332–342. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.41

WMO. (2010). Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide.

WMO. (2015). The Climate in Africa 2013. Geneva-Switzerland.

Wolka, K., & Zeleke, G. (2016). Understanding Farmers’ Perception on Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies in Karetha Watershed, Omo-gibe Basin, Ethiopia. Asian J.Earth Sci, 10(1), 22– 32. https://doi.org/10.3923/ajes.2017.22.32

Yagoub, Y. E., Li, Z., & Musa, O. S. (2017). Detection of Drought Cycles Pattern in Two Countries ( Sudan and South Sudan ) by Using Standardized Precipitation Index SPI, 7(4), 93–105. https://doi.org/10.5923/j.ajee.20170704.03

Zeleke, T.T., Lukwasa, A.Z.W., Beketie, K.T., Ayal, D.Y. (2024). Analysis of Spatio-temporal precipitation and temperature variability and trend over Sudd Wetland, Republic of South Sudan. Climate Service (28) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100451.