Temperature and Precipitation Projections for selected station on Middle Rift Valley Ethiopia, using RCP scenarios
Abstract
This study analyzed the potential impacts of climate change on three weather stations in Ethiopia using models and ensembles of daily precipitation and temperature. The analysis focused on three timeframes (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) and different RCP scenarios. The results revealed that the temperature is expected to increase in all three stations under different RCP scenarios and timeframes, varying depending on the scenario and station. Additionally, the temperature and precipitation anomalies analysis provided valuable insights into how climate patterns change over time. The historical trends in rainfall indicate a declining rainfall trend during the March-April-May (MAM) rainy season, while the October-November-December (OND) rainy season shows an increase. Tmax and Tmin patterns are consistent with the domain having a common rising trend with a rate of 0.07°C to 2.67°C per decade. Projection analysis considered three emissions scenarios: a low-emission (mitigation) scenario (RCP2.6), a medium-level emission scenario (RCP4.5), and a high- emission (business as usual) scenario (RCP8.5). A noticeable increase in precipitation across different scenarios and time frames for all stations, with the percentage change varying from -2.3% to 39.3%. In terms of precipitation increase, Metehara is projected to have a higher percentage change compared to Meki, ranging from 0.01% to 39.3% across different scenarios and timeframes. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, Melk Worer is expected to have the lowest percentage increase in precipitation, ranging from -2.3% to 5.6%, among the three weather stations. The study recommends taking proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change, such as developing early warning systems and implementing water conservation measures to build more resilient communities and mitigate the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems
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