Overtime Modelled Climate Variability Effect in Roysambu Sub-County in Nairobi Kenya: A Retrospective Analysis

Roselyn Gathoni Ngigi; James Kibii Koske; Cecilia Gichuki

doi:10.37284/ajccrs.2.1.1169

Roselyn Gathoni Ngigi Kenyatta University
James Kibii Koske, PhD Kenyatta University
Cecilia Gichuki, PhD Kenyatta University

DOI: https://doi.org/10.37284/ajccrs.2.1.1169

Keywords: Climate Variability, Rainfall, Temperature, Retrospective analysis, Simple Regression

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Abstract

The effect of climate variability is unprecedented, affecting an array of ecosystems globally. Intensified effects of rainfall and temperature variations are affecting urbanised ecosystems where urban sprawl has ramified. This study looks at modelled retrospective climate variability changes in the Roysambu area, an urbanised suburb in Nairobi County, Kenya. The study aimed to ascertain the changes in rainfall and temperature in the past 30 years. From the simple regression analysis, the total annual average rainfall has slightly increased in the area (y = 0.5235x + 72.037, R2 = 0.0618). There were changes in temperature where the maximum average temperature had increased by 0.5 °C with a simple regression model (y = 0.012x + 0.6281, R2 = 0.0814). From the findings, climate variability has been experienced in the area through simple regression model retrospective analysis over time

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